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Laricina Energy Ltd
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Peters & Co 2012 North American Oil & Gas Conference
| Glen Schmidt | Page 8 of 11 |
November 23, 2024
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September 11, 2012 Proving Something Big 8The scale of the tight oil resource / displacement of crude from US markets • Tight oil growth forecasts vary widely, with the upper end of forecasters indicating 2020 tight oil production approximately 5 million bbl/d (2) • While large, this level of growth will not result in energy independence – The US imported 11.4 million bbl/d of crude and refined petroleum products in 2011 • The most likely sequence of displaced US imports is light sweet, followed by light sour and finally heavy sour crude imports; CERA’s recent forecast(3) indicates heavy sour imports will not be displaced by tight oil growth, while the later two may be partially or entirely displaced (1) EIA data: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm. (2) IHS: Canadian Oil Sands Analytics Quarterly Meeting (July, 2012); RSEG: “Lots of Oil, How Quick?” (April, 2011); Harvard Kennedy School: “Oil: The Next Revolution The Unprecedented Upsurge of Oil Production Capacity and What it Means for the World ” (June, 2012); CIBC: “Too Much of a Good Thing: A Deep Dive into the North American Energy Renaissance” (August 2012). (3) IHS: Canadian Oil Sands Analytics Quarterly Meeting (July, 2012).