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Bangchak Petroleum Public Co. Ltd.
|
Q1 2015 Analyst Meeting
| Pichai Chunhavajira | Page 30 of 11 |
November 23, 2024
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"Q1 2015 Analyst Meeting"
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Key Product Factors Petroleum Product Outlook : New refineries come online pressured gasoil spread 30 The Bangchak Petroleum Plc -8.5 -10.6 -8.4 -5.6 -1.9 -3.9 -4.0 -5.0 -8.0 -8.3 -3.7 -12 -7 -2 1Q'14 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q'15 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 2014 2015 17.8 16.0 14.4 16.0 15.1 13.7 14.0 14.5 17.9 16.0 14.3 10 15 20 1Q'14 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q'15 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 2014 2015 14.6 16.1 13.2 13.4 15.4 16.2 14.8 12.2 13.7 14.3 14.7 8 13 18 1Q'14 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q'15 2Q 3Q 4Q 2013 2014 2015 Gasoline 95 - DB (Unit: $/BBL) ? New refinery in ME and India start to operate Source: BCP outlook ? BP’s 102 KBD in close down by mid-this year. 2Q/15 ? Demand response to low oil prices ? U.S. driving seasons ? Higher transportation during Muslim fasting month ? Asian refinery returns from turnaround in late of the quarter 2H/15 ? Slower Indonesia import demand after new RFCC unit start-up ? End of summer, slower demand in winter (Q4) 2Q/15 ? Refinery closures in Australia ? Summer demand in the Middle East ? New refineries in Saudi Arabia, UAE and India export gasoil 2H/15 ? Supply squeeze from new refinery ?Slower Indonesia’s diesel import ? Chinese diesel demand slowdown ? Winter demand in Q4 2Q/15 ? Decrease Chinese teapot demand ? High western arbitrage inflows 2H/15 ? Some Japan nuclear likely to restart in 4Q ? Higher demand for power generation during winter Gas oil 0.05%S - DB (Unit: $/BBL) Fuel oil 3.5%S - DB (Unit: $/BBL) Outlook