|
As of market close on July 19, oil prices increased for seven days attributable to rising Middle East tensions. Near-month Nymex (August 2012 contract) closed at $92.66/bbl - up $2.79 on the day. The forward Nymex strip stands at $93.90/bbl. In the U.S., near-month Nymex gas (August 2012) also rose 2.6 cents to close at $2.999 per MMbtu. The latest storage report shows gas inventories now stands at 2.654 Tcf - a level 19% over last year's with the gap narrowing consistently. With this docFinder Alert, PLS provides you with key slides intended to provide perspective on longer-term global oil supply and demand dynamics.
The slide above left is courtesy of Weatherford International and sources Deutsche Bank. Vividly shown is that despite increased drilling, OPEC spare capacity has not increased meaningfully over the last 20 years. Many trends on the graph draw attention. First is that OPEC's spare capacity is tightening through 2015. Second is the return of Iraqi oil to the markets. Third is the growing role of NGLs being supplied in the OPEC liquids mix. Fourth is the virtual full-production throttle of OPEC in 2003 and finally the clear large excess capacity that OPEC wielded in the mid-1980s.
The slide above right is courtesy of Valero Energy in which internal sources internal and consultants show world petroleum demand growth estimates segregated into U.S., OECD (excl. U.S.) and non-OECD (or emerging) countries. Notice particularly in 2004 where global oil demand expanded by nearly 3 MMbbls/day - which, as seen on the left slide, pushed OPEC spare capacity to virtually zero. In 2012, the data suggests global oil demand will rise by roughly 1 MMbbls/d and clearly demonstrates the unabated growth in oil demand from emerging countries. Also in this presentation is an excellent list of global refinery closures completed and planned to 2014.
More HOT slides and data below.
PLS highlights other key slides regarding global oil dynamics. Plains All American shows that the U.S. has regained leadership in oil production growth recently. Chesapeake presents an interesting slide demonstrating the cost to the U.S. for importing oil as well as the large need for new oil production to keep pace. PEMEX presents Mexico's success in growing oil production compared to the rest of the world. Last, Noble Energy has opened up the Levant Basin in the Eastern Mediterranean, scoring a string of six discoveries with over 35 Tcf - certainly a game changer for Israel.
Did you know?
Oil company execs, investors and bankers know full well the value of "competitive reconnaissance." PLS' new docFinder database is a valuable DATA source to help you stay current on industry and company developments. DocFinder lets you quickly view and compare type curves, oil price differentials, drilling costs, operating costs, CAPEX plans past, present and future, and other critical data.
Start your free trial to docFinder today!
| 
