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RBSA Advisors
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Crude Oil Price Crash - Black Gold Loses its Glitter
| Nachiket Kadu | Page 8 of 11 |
November 23, 2024
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"Crude Oil Price Crash - Black Gold Loses its Glitter"
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5 Impact of falling Oil Prices on India – An Analysis ? At nearly 37%, Oil Products constituted a lion’s share of our total imports in FY13-14. Lower oil prices would help reduce the Current Account Deficit (CAD) ? Escalating oil prices in the last few years resulted in a rise in the CAD to a high of 4.7% of the GDP during 2012-13 ? India reported a CAD of 1.7% of the GDP at the end of FY2014. With crude oil prices falling sharply, we might even report a current account surplus in the near future. ? The reduced prices will not only lower the import bill but also help save on foreign exchange. ? This allows the Reserve Bank some room to add more dollars to India’s forex reserves, allowing the rupee to depreciate to make exports more competitive. India, which is the fourth largest consumer of oil, is a big beneficiary of falling oil prices. -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015A USD per barrel Oil Prices CAD:GDP A $10 FALL IN CRUDE COULD REDUCE THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT BY APPROXIMATELY 0.5% OF GDP AND THE FISCAL DEFICIT BY AROUND 0.1% OF GDP However, a low oil price has marginal negative effects as well. ? India's exports to oil producing economies could get impacted when the growth rates of those economies take a dip due to low oil prices. Oil Products constituted 20% of our exports in FY13-14. ? Any slowdown in oil producing countries can affect the inward remittances by the large Indian diaspora working in those countries.